E-commerce to Offset Slower Pace in 2023

  • Holiday retail sales projected to increase by 2.3% to 3.3% according to Deloitte
  • E-commerce growth expected to offset slower overall sales pace compared to 2023
  • Inflation, credit card debt and declining savings impacting consumer spending
  • Mobile shopping on the rise, particularly among Gen Z consumers
  • Social media platforms becoming popular for holiday gift purchases

Deloitte’s latest sales growth forecast for the holiday season predicts a slowdown from last year, with retail sales projected to rise between 2.3% and 3.3%. In comparison, the firm had predicted a 3.5% to 4.6% increase in 2023, reaching $1.54 trillion to $1.56 trillion. Various economic factors are affecting consumer budgets, including lingering inflation, rising credit card debt, and declining savings. The Consumer Price Index rose by 2.5% year over year in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. U.S. credit card debt increased $27 billion in Q2 to reach $1.14 trillion, as per the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data. A recent Bankrate survey revealed that 30% of respondents plan to spend less this holiday season due to inflation and high interest rates. An Adobe Analytics report suggests that over half (53%) of online shopping during the holidays will occur on mobile devices, with a EMarketer report based on Basis Technologies and GWI research showing 42% of Gen Z shoppers likely to purchase gifts through social media platforms, more than millennials (26%), Gen Xers (15%), and baby boomers (6%). Michael Jeschke, Deloitte Consulting’s retail and consumer products leader, said, ‘E-commerce sales will remain strong as consumers maximize their spending through online deals.’

Factuality Level: 8
Factuality Justification: The article provides accurate information from reliable sources such as Deloitte Insights, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data, Adobe Analytics, and EMarketer. It also includes expert opinions from Akrur Barua and Michael Jeschke. The article presents a clear and concise overview of the current economic factors affecting holiday sales growth and consumer behavior.
Noise Level: 3
Noise Justification: The article provides relevant information about Deloitte’s sales growth forecast for the holiday season and discusses factors affecting consumer spending such as inflation, credit card debt, and changing shopping habits among different generations. It also includes data from various sources to support its claims. However, it could benefit from more in-depth analysis of long-term trends or possibilities and exploring consequences of decisions on those who bear the risks.
Financial Relevance: Yes
Financial Markets Impacted: The article discusses the impact of inflation, credit card debt, and consumer spending on holiday retail sales which can affect various companies in the retail industry.
Financial Rating Justification: The article talks about Deloitte’s forecast for holiday sales growth, which is related to financial topics such as inflation, credit card debt, and consumer behavior. It also mentions the impact of these factors on retailers and e-commerce sales, which can affect companies in the retail sector.
Presence Of Extreme Event: No
Nature Of Extreme Event: No
Impact Rating Of The Extreme Event: No
Extreme Rating Justification: There is no mention of an extreme event in the text.

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