UK Economy Expected to Remain in Recession Until End of 2023

  • CBI downgrades UK GDP growth forecast to -0.4% for 2023
  • Recession expected to last until end of 2023
  • UK economy likely to fall into recession in Q3 2022
  • Inflation to peak at 11.1% in October, then gradually decrease
  • Output per worker remains 2% below pre-COVID trend by 2024
  • UK GDP 8% below pre-COVID trend and 27% below pre-financial crisis trend by end of forecast
  • CBI calls for government action to support growth and investment

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) has downgraded its GDP growth outlook for the UK, predicting a contraction of 0.4% in 2023 (compared to a previous forecast of 1.0%). The organization cites a turbulent political and economic climate as the reason behind this change, with the economy expected to fall into recession in Q3 2022 and remain so until the end of 2023. CBI director-general Tony Danker warns that the UK is experiencing stagflation – high inflation, negative growth, declining productivity, and reduced business investment. He urges the government to take action to avoid a lost decade of growth and ensure a shallow recession.

Factuality Level: 10
Factuality Justification: The article provides accurate information about CBI’s downgraded GDP growth outlook, reasons behind it, and its implications for the UK economy. It also includes quotes from Tony Danker, CBI director-general, which provide insight into the current economic situation and recommendations for government action.
Noise Level: 3
Noise Justification: The article provides a clear and concise overview of the CBI’s downgraded GDP growth outlook and offers insights from Tony Danker, CBI director-general on the factors contributing to the economic situation in the UK. It also highlights the potential consequences if no action is taken by the government. While it does not delve into unrelated topics or contain irrelevant information, it could benefit from more analysis of long-term trends and possible solutions beyond calling for government action.
Financial Relevance: Yes
Financial Markets Impacted: UK economy and businesses
Financial Rating Justification: The article discusses the downgrade of GDP growth outlook by CBI, impacting the UK economy and businesses, as well as inflation rates. It also mentions the potential for a recession and the need for government action to address the situation.
Presence Of Extreme Event: No
Nature Of Extreme Event: No
Impact Rating Of The Extreme Event: No
Extreme Rating Justification: No extreme event mentioned in the article.

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