Record Economic Resurgence Predicted as Spending Surges

  • UK on track for record economic growth in Q3
  • 14.3% rise in GDP predicted by FT
  • Surge in spending during first two weeks of August
  • July retail sales up 3.6% compared to June
  • Eat Out to Help Out initiative boosts restaurant sector
  • Increase in hours worked for employees in the industry
  • Barclaycard Payments’ SME Barometer shows positive outlook for Q3
  • SMEs predict 5% increase in revenue for Q3 compared to Q2, 14% growth over next 12 months

The UK economy is expected to experience a record economic resurgence during the third quarter of the year, following sharp declines in GDP at the peak of the Covid-19 pandemic in Q2. City of London economists predict a 14.3% rise in GDP for Q3, which could see the UK rise to the top G7 performance table during the quarter. This is supported by new research from consultancy firm Fable Data, which shows a surge in spending during the first two weeks of August; a marked improvement on the same period last year. The UK experienced its first annual growth in spending since it went into lockdown at the tail end of March. July retail sales also saw a return to growth, as volumes increased by 3.6% compared with June, according to the ONS. This is 3% above pre-pandemic levels in February 2020. In the restaurant sector, the second week of the Eat Out to Help Out (EOTHO) initiative saw a 30% increase in sales compared with the week before the scheme started, research from Fourth revealed last week. The spike in consumer demand led to an increase in the hours worked by employees in the industry, as the total hours scheduled between Monday-Wednesday of the opening week jumped 17% from the previous week – with pubs accounting for a 13% increase, restaurants 33%, and QSR 15%. Further to this, it was announced that scores from the Barclaycard Payments’ SME Barometer jumped from 79 out of a possible 200 points at the start of Q2, to 95 points at the start of Q3. It revealed that over a third (36%) of SMEs share a positive outlook for their own business during the third-quarter period, up 15% versus Q2. Across all sectors, SMEs predict a 5% increase in revenue for Q3 compared to Q2, which grows to 14% over the next 12 months. Businesses reported, on average, a 14% decline in revenue for their second quarter, compared with the first quarter.

Factuality Level: 8
Factuality Justification: The article provides accurate information from reliable sources such as the Financial Times, ONS, and Barclaycard Payments’ SME Barometer. It presents data on economic growth, retail sales, and small business optimism in a clear and concise manner.
Noise Level: 3
Noise Justification: The article provides relevant information about the UK’s economic resurgence during Q3, supported by data from various sources such as GDP, retail sales, and SME Barometer. It also includes expert opinions on the situation. However, it could benefit from more in-depth analysis of long-term trends or potential risks and uncertainties related to the recovery.
Financial Relevance: Yes
Financial Markets Impacted: UK economy and SMEs
Financial Rating Justification: The article discusses the UK’s economic recovery and growth in various sectors, including retail sales and restaurant industry, which can impact financial markets and companies.
Presence Of Extreme Event: No
Nature Of Extreme Event: Other
Impact Rating Of The Extreme Event: Minor
Extreme Rating Justification: No extreme event mentioned in the article, but there’s a positive outlook for economic growth and recovery after the pandemic.

Reported publicly: www.retailsector.co.uk